Our Biggest Threat

It’s officially twelve days since Election Day. And here we are. What the election told us was simple: we’re divided.

I’m not here to talk about winners or losers, Democrats or Republicans, or who’s right or who’s wrong.

The number one threat to this country is our cognitive biases. Point blank. You could argue that we’re living in a time where polarization has never been higher. It’s impossible to compute or back up with hard numbers, but it certainly feels as if the divide is growing every day.

We live in a world where there is one stream of fact and truth. Sure, there’s room for deviation dependent on the context, but to keep things simple, there tends to be a singular truth in everything. Today, there are two sides with the defiant belief that they’re the ones that hold that truth. We’re playing tug-of-war with an invisible rope.

It comes down to our naturally occuring cognitive biases. There’s groupthink bias, in-group bias, belief bias, confirmation bias, framing, sunk-cost fallacy, and the barnum effect, all at play. And you and I aren’t exempt.

• Groupthink bias occurs when you fear dissent in your social group, so the most confident or loud individual makes most decisions.
• In-group bias is when you consider yourself fair or impartial but ultimately favor those that are most similar to you or hold the same beliefs.
• Belief bias occurs when you’ll do anything and everything to rationalize a thought, story, or statement if the conclusion supports your beliefs.
• Confirmation bias is similar in that you look for ways to justify your existing beliefs.
• Framing is when you’re easily influenced by the context or delivery of something. See literally every news network on the face of the planet.
• Sunk-cost fallacy is the idea that you cling to things that have invested so much time, energy, or money into.
• The barnum effect is when you make connections and fill in the blanks with your personal beliefs when there’s a vague or open-ended statement.

When you read those, you can almost immediately start to see them in play with politics. Or maybe even yourself.

• We see groupthink bias in political parties. You associate yourself with a party or an ideology and this becomes your tribe. Instead of openly contradicting the idea, encourage open evaluation and critical thinking with the group to allow others to arrive at a more level-headed conclusion on their own.
• In-group bias is fueled by social media. We want to see and interact with the things that are most similar to us. The content you absorb every day is geared to align with your beliefs, so you’re fed it. It’s hard to break this cycle. Simply imagine yourself in the shoes of something that isn’t in your group, or rather in an opposing group. Be dispassionate about your positions when thinking this way.
• Belief bias is at play with almost every political statement out there. When you associate with a party and are continually fed information that supports your beliefs, whether it’s true or false, you will continue to support that belief no matter the opposing point of view. Confirmation bias is the same thing. If the outcome or conclusion aligns with your beliefs, that is, in your head, instantly considered fact. Take a step back and ask yourself, “when and why did I get this belief?” Lots of people don’t ever stop and think about why they believe a certain way about something.
• We all fall to framing every single day. Especially with the news. Ever notice how the exact same story can be spun in two different ways to come to two totally different conclusions? It’s because of framing. Have humility. Accept the fact that everyone, including you, can be manipulated, with the hope of limiting the amount of manipulating. Be mindful of how things are being put in front of you.
• Sunk-cost fallacy is pretty evident. For years you might have fought for an ideology, party, or candidate, but the idea of believing something else scares you. Especially after all the time you might have spent defending it. We’re creatures of habit and change of belief in politics is taboo. Regain objectivity: if you had not already invested whatever it is you invested up to this point, would you still do so now?
• The barnum effect is similar to belief and confirmation bias. Turning vague or swiss-cheese statements into a full-blown story that aligns with your beliefs. Imagine you bought a MadLib book but all the blanks were already filled out. Consider how things can be interpreted to apply to anyone, not just you.

Cognitive biases are creating massive polarization in our country and disinformation is only fueling it. The only way to get out of our own ways, bridge the divide, and come together, are by recognizing these bias and influences and correcting them when we become self-aware. It is not an easy task, and it only comes with education and self-awareness. It’s why despite everything going on in both our country and the world, our biases will continue to be the biggest challenge yet.

Until we’re able to believe in one another, practice humility, and accept that we’re not always right, nor is our tribe always right, we will not be able to solve the country’s largest challenges. I can assure you that your beliefs, as true as you might think they are, are not the absolute truth.

Think outside of your own head. We’re better together.